【08.07.AMERICAN SHIPPER】 A New Hope
[font=Verdana][size=3]【来源】 AMERICAN SHIPPER.com【链接】 [/size][/font][url=http://www.americanshipper.com/paid/JUL08/AS_July_2008_lr.pdf][font=Verdana][size=3]http://www.americanshipper.com/paid/JUL08/AS_July_2008_lr.pdf[/size][/font][/url]
[font=Verdana][size=3]【标题】 [/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=3][b]A New Hope
[/b]【正文】
[/size][/font][b][color=#231f20][/color][/b][align=left][b][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/b][/align][align=left][b][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]AMERICAN SHIPPER: [/font][/color][/b][color=#231f20][/color][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]JULY 2008[/color][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/align][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color]
[/font][b][color=#231f20][/color][/b][align=left][b][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]A[/font][/color][/b][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]s Americans are flipping burgers and hotdogs to celebrate July 4, half a world away, a pretty significant event will be taking place. A commercial flight connecting Taiwan with mainland China will take off.
[/font][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/align][align=left][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]At least that's the aim of Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's new president. Elected in March on a wave of support primarily focused around relaxing tension between Taipei and Beijing.
[/font][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][/color][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/align][align=left][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]Ma is aggressively pushing for increasing economic ties between the two. Direct flights across the Taiwan Strait would be a hugely symbolic event, but it would also be a tangible opening for businesses in Taiwan — both domestic and multinational — to exploit. Taiwan¡¯s trade community has for years been calling for better relations between Taipei and Beijing as they warned that Taiwan risked missing out on the global trade boom that was driven almost single-handedly by its motherland, neighbor and adversary.[/color][/font][/align][align=left][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]
[/color][/font][/align][align=left][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/align][align=left][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/align][align=left][font=Verdana][/font][color=#231f20][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]The Taiwanese government's politically driven desire to become an independent nation — in its eyes, the island is the last [/font][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]vestige of the Chinese republic that was driven out by Mao more than 50 years ago — was also having lasting effects on the [/font][font=Verdana]country's economy.[/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Part of the hard-line stance that continued until President Chen Shui-bian termed out in March has been a ban on transport [/font][font=Verdana]links, limits on Taiwanese investment in China and vice versa, and restrictions on imported goods from China. Changing that stance won't be easy, [color=#231f20]but the ball really started rolling in 2006.[/color][/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]
[/color][/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][color=#231f20][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]That's when a prominent U.S. diplomat, Stephen Young,director of the American Institute in Taiwan,a diplomatic rganization, called on the Taiwanese government to open direct links with the mainland or risk being completely marginalized in the global supply chain.
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Businesses in Taipei were relocating to the mainland, or to other parts of Asia, in order to tap into the potential of China that they couldn't from Taiwan — a phenomenon referred to as a “hollowing out of Taiwan's economy.” Young's predecessor at the institute, Douglas Paal, once said, “world-class companies would not constrain their eyes merely on 23 million people, but on overall Chinese in East Asia, including the Chinese mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][font=Simsun][/font][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]The election of Ma seems to have heralded a mandate: calm things down between Beijing and Taipei and start trading again. Ma, who took office in May, is more than happy to oblige. He helped found the Straits Exchange Foundation, a quasi-governmental organization in Taiwan that communicates with a similar organization on the mainland side, the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits on the mainland side.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]While neither body is officially governmental, both are partially funded by their respective governments. Ma said discussion between the two allows for practical talks to move forward without the governments being seen publicly as giving [/font][font=Verdana]in to the other side.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“If you wear a white glove, it is still courteous, but it is not your actual flesh,” he said about using the non-government organizations as a conduit in a March interview with the [/font][/color][i][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]New York Times.
[/color][/font][/i][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][i][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]
[/color][/font][/i][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][i][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/i][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][i][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/i][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]A common misconception of cross-strait relations is that all trade between Taiwan and the mainland has been discontinued due to tension between the two sides.
[/color][/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]
[/color][/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]In fact, Taiwanese investment in the mainland has expanded in the last five years, from $7 billion annually in 2003 to about $9.3 billion in 2007. And the range of investments has also expanded. While Taiwan's first forays into China were [/font][font=Verdana]largely restricted to manufacturing, it has expanded into areas like shopping centers and medical services.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Also, 21 percent of Taiwan’s total foreign trade in 2007 came from China, with 30 percent of its exports and 13 percent of [/font][font=Verdana]its imports coming from the mainland. It should be noted that one-third of Taiwanese [/font][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]exports to the mainland are routed through [/font][font=Verdana]Hong Kong. Imagine the potential if all or most restrictions were lifted?
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]But Taiwan has not been enjoying the full benefits of imports from China, neither from a manufacturing nor a consumer perspective. [/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]In 2006, it had a more than $40 billion trade surplus with the mainland, compared to a $21 billion surplus globally. In short, Taiwan consumers haven't had the chance to buy cheap goods from China, and its companies have been restricted in their ability to use less expensive labor on the mainland.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Mainland China, meanwhile, said the spread is even wider, perhaps because a more pronounced gap makes Taiwan's insular policy look more foolish.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]There is another dynamic emerging — one that could put Taiwan manufacturers at a distinct disadvantage no matter how close the current administration gets to the regime in Beijing. That is, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, is considering setting up low- or no-duty trading blocks with their neighboring Asian nations, like Japan, Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand and China.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]But the talks for these new “ASEAN plus three” or “ASEAN plus six” agreements wouldn't include Taiwan, because of Taiwan’s fractious relationship with Beijing and the ASEAN nations’ reluctance to recognize Taiwan as an independent republic.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]There are no embassies in Taiwan, merely independent bodies (like the American and European chambers of commerce and the American Institute) that are left to foster global trade and keep diplomatic talks going.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]AmCham, in particular, pointed out the ramifications of being left out of the ASEAN agreements, saying in April that[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]it could strike a huge blow to Taiwan's chemical and auto manufacturers as the domestic markets for those products runs dry and they attempt to export.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“If Taiwanese chemical and car producers are confronted with steep tariffs in regional markets while competitors enjoy low-duty or duty-free treatment thanks to free trade agreements, the Taiwanese products will soon lose out,” AmChamwrote in an editorial.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][/color][b][color=#231f20][/color][/b][/color][/color][/color][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][b][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Watershed Report. [/font][/color][/b][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]In 2007, the European Chamber of Commerce in Taipei came out with a report, the [/color][i][color=#231f20]Cross-Strait Business Normalisation Impact Study [/color][/i][/font][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]([/font][url=http://www.ecct.com.tw][font=Verdana]www.ecct.com.tw[/font][/url][font=Verdana]), that sought to quantify exactly what consequences poor relations between Taiwan and the mainland were having on Taiwan's economy.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][color=#231f20][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]The study, co-authored by investment bank and brokerage firm CLSA As[color=#231f20]ia-[color=#231f20]Pacific Markets, “supports the chamber's view that restrictions on cross-Straits business relations add significant costs to local and foreign corporations, deprive Taiwan consumers of choice in products and in general are holding up Taiwan’s economic development. More importantly, it weakens Taiwan’s position vis-à-vis its neighboring competitors.”[/color][/color][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][color=#231f20]
[/color][/color][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]The main constraint is that Taiwanese companies are severely hampered in their ability to source components or finished goods from the mainland, driving up their manufacturing costs.
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“For instance, companies not able to import products from mainland China have to import more expensive products from other countries, and subsequently incur a loss of revenue due to the limited possibility to fulfill consumers' demands for cheaper products,” the ECCT report said. “More revenues are lost when such products are solely produced in mainland China. From a consumer perspective, it also creates additional costs for consumers for higher priced imports from other countries.
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]One company estimates that 14 percent to 15 percent of their revenues are lost due to the import ban.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20]
[/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]In one striking example of the effect of the ban, the study said the Taiwanese government subsidizes the local towel manufacturing industry to the tune of $31 million even though the entire industry only generates $6 million in revenue.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]While jobs would likely be lost in Taiwan's agricultural sector if Taiwan's economy was opened to the mainland, the country would benefit as a whole from increased food and retail trade.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“Retail industries can gain $1 billion in revenue and save $2.2 billion in costs as a result of competitive sourcing and lower transportation costs if the China import ban was removed,” the ECCT said. “These figures add up to 1 percent of Taiwan’s current GDP. Normally a country that faces unfair trade terms files a complaint to the WTO (World Trade Organization). However, as China doesn't want to deal directly with the Taiwanese government, no complaints have been leveled against Taiwan.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]It would also allow Taiwan's companies to more effectively participate in the global market. [/font][font=Verdana]“The removal of trade barriers will allow Taiwanese companies to reposition themselves as importers and distributors, [/font][font=Verdana]specializing in logistics and local marketing,” the report said.
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Also stressed is the impact of direct transportation links. Flying from Taiwan to the mainland has required a stopover in Hong Kong.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20]
[/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“A relaxation of transportation and communication links would encourage more firms to keep or set up their head offices in Taipei, as opposed to mainland China, which has a better infrastructure, quality of living and regulatory environment than mainland China,” the report said. “With flying time reduced to 80 minutes (from more than five hours currently), many Taiwanese living in China would choose to live in Taiwan and travel to China on business rather than the other way around.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]The lack of direct travel influences decisions on management and headquarters location as well. [/font][font=Verdana]“In market value terms, the value-added is earned at head offices,” the report said. “It is therefore critical to Taiwan to keep head office activities. However, because managers must travel around China, and without direct links it takes a whole day to get there, head office functions are increasingly being moved to China. In addition, because PRC [/font][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]passport holders cannot easily visit head offices in Taiwan, there must be an office in China for meetings and training.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][/color][b][color=#231f20][/color][/b][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][b][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/b][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][b][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Logistics Hub? [/font][/color][/b][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]The chamber’s report also stresses that one of the key functions of breaking down trade barriers is that Taiwan could morph into a sort of new Hong Kong, as logistics activity could skyrocket.
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“Direct links between Taiwan and China would also create a much better opportunity for Taiwan to establish itself as a logistics center,” the study said. “It has the benefits of a strategic geographic location — near the coastal manufacturing centers in mainland China; an established core of companies operating in shipping and air cargo; and itcan potentially benefit from overcrowding in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“Furthermore, logistics centers in Taiwan can benefit from Taiwanese manufacturers that need to assemble their final products out of labor-intensive components made in mainland China, and high-end components from Japan. Already a number of businesses are following this strategy, even with the high cost of transportation via third countries. After direct links have been implemented, the study expects that Taiwanese manufacturers will pursue this strategy in larger numbers.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Some might question whether it's too late for Taiwan to become a hub in Asia, with Singapore and Hong Kong well entrenched and Busan vying for the mantle of the logistics hub of Northeast Asia.
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“There is a considerable amount of doubt urrounding the issue of whether Taiwan can become a regional logistic center at such a late time,” the ECCT study said. “However, we feel that at a minimum, Taiwan should be able to become a critical alternative to Shanghai and Hong Kong once the traffic to these hubs becomes overcrowded. The likelihood of Taipei developing into a ‘back-up’for Shanghai and Hong Kong is high.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]In an interview with [/font][/color][i][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]American Shipper, [/font][/color][/i][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]Justin Huang, secretary general of the Taiwan Textile Federation, said that opening direct links with the mainland could suddenly make Taiwan’s textile industry relevant again.[/color][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20]
[/color][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][color=#231f20][/color][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][color=#231f20][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“The industry of weaving and dyeing/finishing is quite competitive in the international market because it is not labor intensive, and so Taiwan is at a disadvantage,” Huang said. “If there were direct (ocean and air) links between the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's textile industry would be a good place of production to then ship to China for garment manufacturing for re-export or selling in their domestic market.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]Huang also pointed out that China is doing its part, relaxing financial regulations and [/font][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]actively cutting its advantage in export.[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]
[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font] [/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana][/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][font=Verdana]“The new laws and regulations concerning the exchange and monetary policies, shrinking processing trade, reduction of export rebates, implementation of employment contract law, etc., have already decreased Chinese textile and apparel industry’s competitiveness in the global market,” he said. “Especially from 2008, thousands of textile and apparel factories (in China) were closed. I have heard from our Taiwanese business leaders that ‘made in China,’ in the coastal provinces, is almost the same as ‘made in Philippines’ in terms of costs.”[/font][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/align][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][align=left][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][color=#231f20][/color][/color][/color][/color]
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[[i] 本帖最后由 Nicolle 于 2008-7-24 02:44 编辑 [/i]] [attach]57336[/attach]
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[[i] 本帖最后由 Nicolle 于 2008-8-1 18:36 编辑 [/i]] Ilt 老大, 说到你的短消息了，但是非常遗憾，由于这个PDF文件太大，无法上传，所以只好截图。如有需要，在我提供的链接里可以下载。
此外，不知道为什么，复制主题过来后，后面网友的跟帖翻译也不见了，现重新复制如下。
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[b]翻译 by 撒小丫[/b]
中文翻译[align=left][size=12pt]新希望[/size][/align]
[align=left][size=12pt][/size][/align][align=left][size=12pt]7[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]月[/size][/font][size=12pt]4[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]日（美国独立日），正当美国人弹冠相庆独立日的时候，半个世界离我们[/size][/font][size=12pt]([/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]美国[/size][/font][size=12pt])[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]远去了，一项更为具有深远意义的事件将要发生了。连接台湾和大陆的第一架民航客机即将起飞。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]至少，这是台湾现任总统马英九的目标。3月上台的马英九政府示意极力缓解台湾与北京的紧张局势。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]马英九极力推动两岸经济纽带的增长。跨越台湾海峡的直飞航班是非常具有象征意义的事件，也同样切实的开放了台湾本土和跨国经济的拓展。台湾业界已经呼吁改善台北和北京关系多年，因为业界担心，台湾会错过全球经济繁荣的大好机遇，而这种全球经济繁荣几乎是由自己祖国、邻居和对手（即大陆）单独推动的。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]台湾政府的政治渴望是成为一个独立的国家，在他们眼中，这座岛国是[/size][/font][size=12pt]50[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]多年前由毛主席赶出大陆的中华民国仅剩的遗迹，同时对该国的经济也有持续的影响。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]部分强硬态度，包括禁止两岸运输连线、限制台湾人在大陆投资和限制大陆人在台湾投资，同时限制从中国进口商品，直到总统陈水扁在3月下台后这种状态才得以缓解。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]改变那些强硬姿态并不容易，但是改善的步伐在2006年已经开始运转了。当时一位资深美国外交官，[/size][/font][size=12pt]Stephen Young[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]（[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]杨苏棣），一个外交组织-美国在台协会的台北办事处处长呼吁台湾当局开放同大陆的直航连线，否则台湾将面临在全球供给链中被边缘化的危险。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]为了能够进军中国的潜在市场，而这些潜在市场是台湾所没有的，台北的企业开始重新转移回大陆或其他亚洲国家，这种现象被戏称为“空洞化的台湾经济”。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][color=#231f20][/color][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]杨苏棣的前任长官，[/size][/font][size=12pt]Douglas Paal[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]曾经说过，“世界级公司不会只把眼界局限于仅仅的[/size][/font][size=12pt]23[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]，[/size][/font][size=12pt]000[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]，[/size][/font][size=12pt]000[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]（台湾人口总数），而是放眼整个东亚的中国人，包括中国大陆，台湾和香港。”[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]当选的马英九似乎宣布了一项命令：缓和北京同台北的关系，同时重新开始两岸贸易往来。在[/size][/font][size=12pt]5[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]月接管政权的马英九非常乐意促成这一事件。他帮助成立了“台湾海峡交流基金会”，一个在台湾类似于政府机构的组织。在大陆也有一个类似的跨越台湾海峡的组织[/size][/font][size=12pt]-[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]海峡两岸关系协会。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]虽然两方都不是官方组织，但是二者部分经费都来自各自政府。马表示，海基同海协两会在没有政府舆论导向上进行的实质性对话对双方都是一种促进。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]3[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]月在接受纽约时报采访时，马说：“如果你带了一双白手套，尽管是很礼貌行为，但是这并不是真正的握手。”意思是说利用非政府组织作为双方交流的渠道。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]一个普遍的海峡两岸关系误解是说，由于两岸紧张局势，使得台湾和大陆两地商务贸易被迫终止。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]事实上，台湾人在大陆投资在过去五年里不断增长，从[/size][/font][size=12pt]2003[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年的[/size][/font][size=12pt]70[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]亿美元到[/size][/font][size=12pt]2007[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年约[/size][/font][size=12pt]93[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]亿美元。同时，投资范围也在增加。台湾在第一次进军大陆时，企业是受限制的，但是现在已经拓展到如购物中心和医疗服务等领域。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]同样，2007年台湾地区对中国大陆的对外贸易额占台湾对外贸易总额的21%，对大陆的出口额占总额的30%，进口额占13%。应该注意的是1/3出口到大陆的台湾商品要通过香港。想象一下如果所有或是大多数限制被取消会是怎样的潜力呢？[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]但是台湾企业，无论是从企业角度还是消费者角度，都没有从中国进口上得到充分的好处。2006年，台湾对大陆的贸易顺差大约有400亿美元，而相比于大陆，台湾对全球贸易顺差约有210亿美元。简而言之，台湾消费者没有机会买到由中国大陆制造的便宜商品，同样台湾公司也被限制不能使用大陆的廉价劳动力。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]其间，中国大陆表示，陆台贸易尺度已经放的很宽了，可能是由于明显的差距使得独特的台湾政策看起来很不明智。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]这里还有一个正在变化中的新兴现象，这就是无论现在台湾当局于北京政权的关系有多末紧密，台湾的企业都处在一个明显的劣势。也就是说，东南亚国家联盟，或（东盟），考虑同他们临近的亚洲国家，像日本、韩国、印度、澳大利亚、新西兰和中国建立较低的或是无关税壁垒。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]因为台湾同北京的紧张关系，新东盟“10+3”（东盟十国+中国，日本和韩国）或是东盟“10+6”（同上+澳大利亚，印度和新西兰）会谈协议并不包括台湾，并且东盟各国不愿承认台湾是一个独立的国家。在台湾没有大使馆，仅仅有一些独立的团体（如，美国和欧洲商会，以及美国协会）留下来促进全球贸易和保持外交谈判。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]美国商会特别指出台湾被排除在东盟协议的结果，他指出，当国内市场开始疲软，今年4月对台湾的化学和汽车制造商来说是一个巨大的打击，尽管他们尝试出口。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]美国商会在一片社论里写到，“如果台湾化学和汽车制造业在区域市场里面临高关税压力，而他的竞争对手却在享受着自由贸易协定带来的低关税或无关税优惠待遇，那么台湾产品不久就会淡出市场。”[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left]（待续）[font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align]
[[i] 本帖最后由 Nicolle 于 2008-8-1 19:02 编辑 [/i]] [align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]（接上篇）[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][b]流域报告[/b][/size][/font][size=12pt][b].[/b] [/size][size=12pt]2007[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年，台北欧洲商会出台了一份名为《海峡两岸商业贸易正常化影响研究》的报告（[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt][url=http://www.ecct.com.tw/][color=#55cc99]www.ecct.com.tw[/color][/url][/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]）[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]。报告设法确切的量化台湾同大陆恶交后对台湾经济产生的后果。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font] [/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]这篇报告由投资银行和经济公司里昂证券合著，“报告中指出，两岸商业联系的限制导致本土和外国公司的成本加大，进而剥夺了台湾消费者的商品选择权，同时从大体上讲，此举限制了台湾本土经济的发展。更重要的是，相对去其他临近的竞争国家，此举也削弱了台湾的竞争位置。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]主要的限制因素是严格限制台湾公司购买来自大陆的组件或是成品的资格，致使台湾的制造成本大大增加。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]欧洲商会报告说，“例如，台湾公司无法从中国大陆进口产品进而不得不从其他国家进口比较贵的产品。并且无可避免的由于无法满足消费者对于廉价产品的需求而产生收入损失[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]。[color=#231f20]”“当这样的商品只在中国大陆生产时，更多的利润流失了。从消费者的角度出发，这也造成了消费者在购买其他国家昂贵的产品时要多付钱。某公司估计，由于禁止从中国进口使得他们的利润损失了14%-15%。[/color][/size][/font][/align][align=left][color=#231f20][/color][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][color=#231f20][/color][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]禁令影响的又一个显著例子[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]，研究表明台湾政府补贴给本土纺织制造业高达3100百万美元，尽管整个产业只能创造6百万美元的利润。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]当台湾农业失业率节节攀升的时候，如果台湾经济对大陆开放，整个国家都会从粮食增长和零售贸易获益良多。[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]欧洲商会报告说，[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]“如果中国进口禁令被移除，零售业会因为竞争性采购和低运输成本而获得[/size][/font][size=12pt]10[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]亿美元的收入并节省[/size][/font][size=12pt]22[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]亿美元的成本。”“把前面这些数字加起来，台湾的[/size][/font][size=12pt]GDP[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]增加了[/size][/font][size=12pt]1%[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]。通常情况下，在一个国家面临着不平等贸易条款的时候，会对[/size][/font][size=12pt]WTO[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]提出投诉。然而，因为中国不愿直接与台湾政府进行贸易往来，所以台湾不应该受到指责。”[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]对大陆的贸易开放也将使得台湾公司更有效地的参与到全球市场中。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]报告还说，“消除贸易壁垒会使得台湾公司重新复位到他们自己作为进口商和分销商的位置上，特别是物流和本土市场。”[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]报告还同时还强调两岸直接通航的影响。飞机从台湾飞到大陆需要在香港转机。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]报告说，“运输和通讯联系尺度的放宽将鼓励更多的企业在留在台北或是建立的总公司，坐落于中国大陆对面的台湾拥有比大陆更好的基础设施，生活质量和规范的环境。”“随着飞行时间减到80分钟（之前5个多小时），许多住在中国的台湾人会改为选择住在台湾，然后飞到中国进行商业活动，而不是选择其他方式。”[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]两岸对点运输的缺乏影响了台湾企业的管理以及总部地点的决定。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]报告说，“对于市场价值来讲,增值过程都是在公司总部产生”“对台湾来[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]说，保持总公司的运转是至关重要的。但是，由于管理人员必须辗转于大陆，而且没有两岸直航航班，导致必须花上一整天的时间才能到达大陆，所以总公司的职能越来越多的转移到了中国大陆。此外，由于中华人民共和国护照持有人无法轻易的访问台湾总公司，因此大陆必须有一个能够举行会议和进行培训的办事处。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left]（待续）[size=12pt][/size][/align] [align=left][b][font=宋体][size=12pt]（接上篇）[/size][/font][/b][/align]
[align=left][b][font=宋体][size=12pt]物流中心[/size][/font][size=12pt]?[/size][/b][font=宋体][size=12pt]报告还着重强调了打破贸易壁垒后的一个主要作用，那就是台湾有可能转变为某种“新香港”，作为物流中心的职能也可能迅猛增长。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]研究表明:“台湾和中国的直航将会为台湾本土建立自己的物流中心提供更好的机遇。“台湾有很好的战略地理位置：靠近中国沿海制造业中心；已有经营海运和航运的核心公司；还可以潜在的从上海和香港过度饱和的物流业上获得利益的能力。”[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]“此外，台湾物流中心可以从一些台湾工厂中收益。这些台湾工厂主要将大陆经过劳动密集型产业生产出来的配件和日本生产的高端配件成品进行组装。[/size][/font][font=宋体][size=12pt]已经有一些企业应用这种策略，甚至不惜以通过第三国家的高额运输成本为代价。在实现了两地直航后，研究预计，台湾厂商将会继续大力实行此种策略。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font] [/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]有人开始质疑台湾成为亚洲物流中心是否已经为时太晚，因为新加坡和香港的地位根深蒂固，同时釜山也在争夺东亚物流中心的位置。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]欧洲商会报告指出，“相当多的疑虑围绕着在起步较晚的台湾能否成为区域性物流中心。然而，我们认为，最低限度上，当上海和香港两地的运输过于拥挤时，台湾应该可以成为一个非常有力的备选地。台北发展成为一个上海和香港的“后备队”的可能性很高。”[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt]Justin Huang[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]，台湾纺织协会秘书长在接受[/size][/font][size=12pt][i]American Shipper[/i][/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]的采访时谈到，大陆直航的开放将会快速的唤起台湾的纺织工业生机[i]。[/i][/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][size=12pt]Huang[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]指出，“纺织和印染产业在国际市场上是非常有竞争力的，因为它不是劳动密集型产业。但是台湾在纺织和印染业上并没有优势。如果在台湾海峡之间有直接的交通连接（海洋或是航空），台湾纺织业将会是一个很好的生产场地，然后商品再运回中国服装制造厂，在大陆市场上进行再出口和销售。”[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size] [/align][align=left][size=12pt]Huang[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]还指出，中国正在尽自己最大努力做好自己的本职工作，放宽财政条例，并且在出口方面积极的降低自己的优势。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size] [/align][align=left][size=12pt]Huang[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]指出，“外汇和货币政策相关新法律和规章制度的出台、紧缩加工贸易、减少出口退税，实施就业合同法等，都已减少了中国纺织品和服装制造业在全球市场中的竞争优势。特别是从[/size][/font][size=12pt]2008[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年开始，数千的纺织品和服装工厂（在中国）会被关闭。我听台湾商界领袖说，在沿海省份的“中国制造”在价钱方面几乎与“菲律宾制造”一样了。”[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]欧洲商会报告还指出，贸易壁垒的消除对台湾航空货运具有极大的重要意义，但对海运来说则具有较小的意义。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font] [/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]报告说，“在往返于香港和澳门的民航航班中，台湾的两家顶级航空公司中华航空公司和长荣航空公司占了市场份额[/size][/font][size=12pt]40%[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]以上。但是，对于货运业务来说，两家公司仅占了[/size][/font][size=12pt]20%[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]。记住，中华航空公司和长荣航空公司都是排名在世界航空货运顶端的运营商。这就产生了疑问：为什么两家公司仅在航空货运这块大馅饼上占有小小的一块，而为什么澳门航空和港龙航空在这个领域里会具有如此强大的力量呢？[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt]
[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]“答案很简单，因为澳门和港龙两家航空公司在为他们的客户运送货物时不需要中途转机，从而为客户节省了时间和金钱。航空货运直航将会重新定位航空货运公司在现有市场里的位置，同时也将促使货运量大幅度增长而降低成本。”[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font] [/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]台湾较长的海运线已经具备了进军中国市场的能力，同时由于从上海和台北直接启航的船只需要取道香港，使得台湾货运为了降低成本而致使利润受限。[/size][/font][size=12pt][/size][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]高雄，曾经是世界第二大集装箱码头，在[/size][/font][size=12pt]2007[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年被迪拜和鹿特丹超越后跌落到第[/size][/font][size=12pt]8[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]名。随着大陆广州、宁波和舟山集装箱港口着重开始扩大后，可能导致高雄港在[/size][/font][size=12pt]2010[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年的世界排名跌出更远。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]最有讽刺意味的是，中国的三个港口正在赶超台湾最大港口，这一点是不容忽视的。[/size][/font][size=12pt][/size][/align] [align=left][b][font=宋体][size=12pt]（接上篇）[/size][/font][/b][/align]
[align=left][b][font=宋体][size=12pt]财富[/size][/font][/b][b][size=12pt]VS.[/size][/b][b][font=宋体][size=12pt]安全[/size][/font][/b][b][size=12pt].[/size][/b][/align][align=left]
[font=宋体][size=12pt]其他经济学家从理论的角度分析，台湾政府以安全重心的政治思想对经济造成了持续性伤害，但是这并不是不可挽回的。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][b][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font][/b] [/align][align=left][b][font=宋体][size=12pt]何思因[/size][/font][/b][font=宋体][size=12pt]在《台湾安全下的政治性经济》一文中提到，“对于台湾来说，在历史和现今社会它同对许多其他小国一样，存在问题是：短期安全和长期的财富之间的平衡是什么？[/size][/font]
[font=宋体][size=12pt]自[/size][/font][size=12pt]90[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年代中后期开始，台湾选择了短期安全，却不惜以牺牲长远的经济利益为代价。从此，台湾与大陆之间的经济贸易开始萎缩。如果台湾和中国的经济实力彼此相当，那么台北的“安全优于财富”的选择则毫无问题。但是如果中国还像[/size][/font][size=12pt]90[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年代那样的快速发展，这个选择则是大错特错的。”[/size][/font]
[/align][align=left][b][font=宋体][size=12pt]何思因[/size][/font][/b][font=宋体][size=12pt]提到，直到台湾企业开始离岛并在大陆建立机构，这股潮流才开始真正的转变[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]他说：“目前在台湾关于这方面的讨论主要集中在掏空高科技电子产业的可能性问题上（例如，半导体和晶片制造业）。这些企业从台湾搬到了大陆。但是，真正的问题在于以下三方面：工业政策本身，政府在自由的全球性资本流动的市场中所扮演的角色和国家的风险投资。”[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]他还表示，台湾人在环顾其他亚洲国家的时候发现，亚洲其他国家用非常低的代价夺走了台湾的竞争优势。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]他（何思因）指出，唯一的答案就是“通过向正蓬勃发展的中国敞开大门进而获得财富，来寻求财富。因为台湾目前的对中国市场的限制性政策使其不会获得任何绝对的和相对的利润。而此时，其他国家则非常高兴的取代台湾在中国大陆的经济地位。”[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font] [/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]无疑的，让台湾的经济学家转变其意识形态还需要很长的时间，因为他们看到大陆同台湾之间的文化差距减小，而经济关系却停滞不前。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][size=12pt][/size] [/align][align=left][size=12pt]2007[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年何思因的另一篇题为《海峡两岸关系展望[/size][/font][size=12pt]-[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]民进党在玩儿火，国民党开放机遇》中说“海峡两岸人民都是同宗同源的中国人，他们用同一种语言沟通。他们分享着共同的文化，而且在过去的十几年里他们一直保持着密切的经济接触。事实上，两岸经济一体化正在快速发展。”[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font] [/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]但是文章也警告马英九的前任，陈水扁，经济一体化事在必行。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]文章说：“总统陈水扁对华政策是尽可能减少海峡两岸的交流。台湾政府在控告联华电子（台湾）非法对和舰晶圆厂（苏州[/size][/font][size=12pt]-[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]中国基地）投资后，继续对联电施压。新华社记者和中国日报记者被驱逐出台湾、进入台湾岛的中国人被采集指纹，经济部委托私人调查员调查在华投资的台湾企业。”[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font] [/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]但是马英九似乎想做一些改变。并不是说他将把台湾的灵魂出卖给共产党（这里直译过来是“杨子江”的意思，我按照自己的理解做了改动。如果有人知道具体含义，敬请更正），而是他意识到对中国有利，就是意味着对台湾有利。[/size][/font][/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt][/size][/font] [/align][align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]马英九在五月接受福布斯采访时提到，他希望扭转外商在台湾投资不断减少的现状。目前外商投资每年增长率都有[/size][/font][size=12pt]5%[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]的下降，但是他希望在自己[/size][/font][size=12pt]4[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]年的任期里能够看到每年能有[/size][/font][size=12pt]5%[/size][font=宋体][size=12pt]的增长。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]马英九说“有很多机遇有待挖掘。房地产是一个。还有建筑工程项目。台湾有机会和外企组成联盟共同拓展大陆市场。日本人了解了一个硬道理，如果他们邀请他们的台湾合作伙伴一起投资，他们将会做的更好。[/size][/font][/align]
[align=left][font=宋体][size=12pt]（结束）[/size][/font][/align]
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