AC 海外网友 Ms.Xiangwei Gong 授权AC 发布 ‘China in 2030'
继 AC 海外网友 沈先生为本站提供他的精彩原创文章之后，由其推荐的海外华人成立的一个英文网站 [url=http://blog.chinationreport.com/]http://www.chinationreport.com/[/url]， 其创建者Ms.Xiangwei Gong 也授权本站发表她的大作。该站的创办是基于 “Imperfect as the world may be, it is always better that we seek to understand each other. East and West, we are one world from beginning to eternity." 正是Anti-cnn.com 志同道合的朋友！Ms. Gong 首先推荐了她在7月的一篇文章 “China in 2030", 文章主旨 “China has created its own path to prosperity and isdefining its own message to restore its past glory. When the powers arebalanced, economic and social gaps among peoples reduced, I believe theworld will become a better place for all.” 现全文发布如下。
[color=red][size=3][b]【鸣谢】借此机会，谨代表AC 感谢Ms.Gong 提供精彩文章！并向海外的爱国华人朋友们致敬！[/b][/size][/color]
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[align=center][size=4][b]China in 2030 [/b]
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By Xiangwei Gong
In the next 20 years China will rise to a significant international power militarily, economically, politically and culturally. On this topic, there exists ample analysis based on hard facts, statistics and widely accepted assumptions such as future growth rate of GDP and military spending. According to Justin Lin Yifu, chief economist of the World Bank, China’s economy could be 2.5 times that of the US by 2030. He compares the Chinese economy in 2000 with that of Japan in 1960. Japan’s economy continued high growth for 30 more years before the economy peaked. With an 8% projected annual growth rate, by 2030, the Chinese per capita GDP may reach half that of Americans and China’s total GDP 2.5 times that of America. This seems to be the most optimistic forecast for the Chinese economy. “The Economist” predicts China to replace USA as the country with the highest GDP/PPP by 2020. By then, the Chinese economy could possibly constitute as much as 20% of the world’s total GDP.
Simultaneous to its economic growth, today China is building up its military at a rapid pace and its military spending is expected to catch up with that of the US by 2030. With the world’s biggest one party system, biggest army and a military striving for modernization, China’s rise in military power often casts suspicion abroad and draws sharp criticism from the US and its western allies. China’s motivation behind its desire for a strong military is often subject to heated debate. For the Chinese, it is a lesson learnt from the country’s war-ridden past and subsequent downfall beginning from the end of Qing Dynasty. The unresolved Taiwan-China issue with US’s commitment to Taiwan’s defense is another motivation for China to achieve and maintain a strong military position. There is little doubt that America is still by far the strongest military power from every aspect, but I am sure it is understood by all parties at stake that any military intervention into China’s guarded borders and interests would bring devastating and far-reaching consequences. Although history proves that the formation of any world power is always accompanied by the presence of a strong military, in today’s global and transparent world, any voluntary exercise of military power in the form of war will actually diminish the chance of China becoming a real world superpower. As China becomes more aware of its own limits and what it has to lose on the world political stage, China will become more willing to engage in dialogue and diplomacy, less willing to deploy troops for any military cause other than self-defense. Therefore, I truly believe and hope that China is building a military power so strong that it actually never has to use it. Mao said that “Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed.” The Chinese word “peace” or “Ping An” is actually made of two parts: “Ping” is balance while “An” is safety. Safety is achieved when the world is balanced. China understands this and has repeatedly emphasized that its rise will be peaceful without causing any military threat to other countries. But in the meantime, it believes that “peace” can only be achieved when the powers are balanced. From the Chinese point of view, this explains why building a strong Chinese military will give China and the region a balance against the super military power from the US, projected strategically from all US bases in the Far East, surrounding China’s borders.
If a strong GDP provides the foundation and means for China to become a world superpower, a strong military provides the security for the power to sustain itself, what remains is for China to build common interests with the world community so that its power can project beyond its borders and become influential on world matters. The importance of common interests to a superpower and its capability to build alliances is as cement is to a brick building. Countries are made of people. People are together because of shared values, shared potential opportunities and prosperity. For China to become a recognized world superpower, numbers in GDP and military spending are far from enough. It will and can only be achieved through further political transparency - to gain trust and accumulation of international goodwill - to gain respect through free trade, economic aid, cultural exchange and skillful diplomacy.
China’s biggest challenge and potential crisis is its lack of natural resources. Crisis, as explained in its Chinese expression “Wei Ji”, means “danger” and “opportunity”. This challenge has been creating a huge opportunity for China to make political friends, build economic ties and an equally huge opportunity for resource-rich countries to enjoy a similar economic boom. According to Xinhua News, trade between Brazil and China increased 42.55% in 2007 versus 2006, reaching $23.3 billion. Powered by the 1.3 billion Chinese consumers’ appetite for meat, China’s lack in agricultural land and water supply makes Brazil an ideal partner in supplying soybeans. As explained by Chinese Ambassador to Brazil, Mr. Chen Duqing, in an NPR news interview, the Chinese and Brazilian economies are “mutually complementary” and that with China as a partner Brazil will reduce its dependence on the U.S. market. According to the same article in NPR news, “Growing Trade Ties China to Latin America” by Julie McCarth, “In the broader frame, the U.S. market share in Brazil has declined the past five years as China’s has surged… The United States’ focus on the war in Iraq made it possible for newcomer China to begin to eclipse the United States in its traditional sphere of influence.”
Similarly, China’s thirst for natural resources partially explains the huge trade increase between China and Africa. Stephanie Hanson, Managing Editor at World Resources Institute, wrote in a June 2008 article titled “China, Africa and Oil” that “China now ranks as the continent’s second-highest trading partner, behind the United States, and ahead of France and Britain. From 2002 to 2003, trade between China and Africa doubled to $18.5 billion; by 2007, it had reached $73 billion.” Although China’s government relationship to Sudan has been subject to strong criticism, according to the author, Africa registered 5.8 percent economic growth in 2007, its highest level ever, in part because of Chinese investment. Experts say the roads, bridges, and dams built by Chinese firms are low cost, good quality, and completed in a fraction of the time such projects usually take in Africa. China also contributes peacekeepers to UN missions across Africa, including Liberia and Darfur. It has cancelled $10 billion in bilateral debt from African countries, sends doctors to treat Africans across the continent, and hosts thousands of African workers and students in Chinese universities and training centers.
Few can argue that the amount of efforts has helped China build strong goodwill and strengthen China’s position as an important player in Africa, a continent traditionally strongly tied to Europe and the US.
Back in 1988 when I was studying in Beijing, my Chinese and foreign student colleagues put on a play called “The Campus in 2030.” The play described romantic scenes with a few story lines projected to happen in my university around the year 2030. It was about how young western students studying there tried everything to find a Chinese spouse to marry in order to obtain a Chinese residence card. The play was a laughing topic for us for a long time. As we all remember, the years around 1988 were the prime time when Chinese were doing everything to get a Green Card and eventually citizenship in America. Nobody believed that the reverse was ever going to happen. For most of us, the play was just wishful thinking.
Not any more! 20 years after that play was performed, more and more ordinary Chinese and even foreigners began to see what has become possible for their future, not just in America, but in China. I consider the penetration and adoption level of a language beyond its natural borders a good indication of power influence. When France was once a much stronger world power than it is today, French was widely adopted as a common language for international matters until the British Empire replaced France on the world’s stage. Since then and because of the superpower flag being passed over to another English speaking country – the USA - English has continued to be the predominant international language for over a century. Given that Chinese is such a fundamentally different language from western languages, it might be hard to imagine that one day people from different parts of the world will meet to find themselves speaking Chinese in order to communicate with each other.
Really? I have a Swiss friend who is married to a Mongolian lady with a daughter living in America. Their only common language happens to be Chinese. I admit that this is still rather a rare situation. But certainly more and more Americans and westerners have begun to learn Chinese. Some high schools in America now offer Chinese language classes. In colleges in some Asian countries, Chinese has become the hottest subject to learn. If the future is hard to predict, we can take a look at history. Just like many Western languages trace the roots back to Latin, many Asian languages have roots in ancient Chinese - Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, to name a few. A Chinatown in Chinese is called “Tang People’s Street” all over the world. It is no coincidence that China’s Tang Dynasty happened to be the world’s strongest economy at the time and its cultural influence was so far reaching that today’s overseas Chinese still call themselves the People of Tang. When I visited Hong Kong 15 years ago, Hong Kong people hardly spoke any Mandarin Chinese. As China’s GDP rises, so does the Mandarin skill of Hong Kong people. Today they speak Mandarin just like a mainlander does. Similar situation has been observed in Singapore and some other Asian countries.
Many wonder what can be the long term binding glue between China and its foreign partners, especially its close neighbors. Trading and economic co-dependency absolutely helps. But there are still plenty of issues, disputes and wounds between China and some of its strongest trading partners in the Far East. If the USA and its western allies have been able to stay together behind the ideology of democracy and freedom, what can be that potential higher purpose to bind together a country or region like Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines and China?
Is there anything beyond oil imports and textile exports? When I finally began to understand the true meaning of the call for a “Harmonious Society” by Mr. Hu Jingtao, I realized that China has found its glue to bring people together. It is not Communism, not western democracy and individualism. Rather, it is the 2500 year old Confucianism, the Confucianism which focuses on human morality and common-good deeds; which honors order and virtue. This philosophy resonates within many Asian societies and elsewhere in the world.
Indeed, old can be new, new can be old. China has created its own path to prosperity and is defining its own message to restore its past glory. When the powers are balanced, economic and social gaps among peoples reduced, I believe the world will become a better place for all.
【译文】
[b][color=red]感谢AC志愿编译erihao, 红山茶, QChen，rlsrls08 和sspek提供翻译！译文版权归Anti-cnn 所有，谢绝转载！[/color][/b]
[align=center][size=4][b]2030年的中国[/b][/size][/align][size=4][b][align=left]
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在接下来的20年里，中国将在军事、经济、政治和文化方面崛起并成为为重要的国际性超级大国。这篇文章中的大量分析是建立在客观的事实、统计数据和广为接受的预测之上，如GDP增长率和军费开支。根据世行首席经济学家林毅夫的预测，中国经济在2030年前将是美国的2.5倍。他将2000年的中国经济与1960年的日本进行了对比。日本的经济在达到高峰之前持续增长了30多年。如果以8%的预测年增长率，在2030年前，中国人均GDP将达到美国人的一半而中国的GDP总量将是美国的2.5倍。这看上去是对中国经济最乐观的估计。《经济学人》预测中国按实际购买力衡量的GDP在2020年将超越美国。到那时，中国经济将占世界GDP总量的20%。
在经济增长的同时，当今中国正快速构建其军事力量并且军费支出有望在2030年赶上美国。出于对全世界最大的一党制度、最大的军队和军事现代化努力的担心，中国军事崛起经常引起国外的担心，而且招致美国及其西方盟友的尖锐批评。中国增强军力愿望的背后动机也经常成为一个热议的话题。对于中国人来说，这是从清末开始的兵连祸乱及随后的衰落中总结的教训。悬而未决的台湾问题以及美国对台湾防御的承诺是中国力争和保持强大军事地位的另一个原因。毫无疑问，到目前为止美国各军种都仍然是最强大的，但是我确信任何利害相关一方都明白，所有针对中国领土和利益的军事干预都将带来毁灭性的及意义深远的后果。尽管历史证明任何世界强权的形成总是伴随着强大军事霸权的出现，但是在今天这个全球化并透明的世界里，任何主动以战争形式动用军事力量的行动都要降低中国成为真正的超级大国的机会。因为中国更清楚其自身的限制和一旦发生战争其在国际政治舞台上将失去什么，所以中国更愿意通过对话和外交手段，而不愿意除了自卫以外的原因调动军队。因此，我毫无疑问地相信并希望中国构建一支强大到无需使用的军事力量。毛主席说过“政治是不流血的战争，而战争是流血的政治。”中国词汇“平安”或是“和平”，这实际上由两部分构成：“平”是指“平衡”而“安”是指安全。当世界平衡时安全也就实现了。中国理解其中的含义并一再强调他将和平崛起而不对其他国家构成军事威胁。但是与此同时，中国相信“和平”只有当权力平衡时才能实现。从中国的角度看，这解释了为什么构建强大的中国军队将给中国和本地区带来平衡，这是为了对抗美国的超级军事力量，而威胁来自于美国战略性布设在远东包围中国边境的军事基地。[color=darkslategray](erihao 译)[/color][/align][color=#2f4f4f][/color]
倘若巨大的GDP（国内生产总值，译注）为中国成为世界强国提供了基础和手段，强大的军队为这个政权的支撑自我提供了安全保证，那么对中国来说，剩下的就是和国际社会建立共同利益。这样，这个政权的影响力就能跨越国界，对国际事务产生影响。对一个强国来说，共同利益的重要性以及其建立联盟的能力正如水泥之于砖砌楼房。各个国家都是由人民构成。人们因共同的价值观，共同的潜在机遇和繁荣而聚到一起。中国要成为一个受认可的世界强国，仅仅是GDP和军费的数字是远远不够的。通过进一步的政治透明度来赢得信任积累国际信誉，通过自由贸易、经济援助、文化交流和灵活的外交手段来赢得尊重，中国将能，也只能通过这些达到目的。
中国的最大挑战及潜在危机是自然资源的缺乏。Crisis（危机），正如其汉语的表达“危机”的那样，意味着“危险”和“机会”。这项挑战为中国广交政治伙伴，建立经济联创造了巨大的机会；这个挑战同样为那些资源丰富国家享有小规模的经济繁荣创造了机会。据新华社报道，2007年，巴西和中国的贸易比2006年上涨42.55%，达到233亿美元。13亿中国人对肉类的消费使中国农作土地和给水缺乏，这让巴西成为中国理想的大豆供应国。正如中国驻巴西大使陈笃庆在一次NPR（全国公共广播电台,简称NPR，是一家获公众赞助及部分政府资助、但独立运作的非商业性美国媒体，译者注）的采访时所说明的那样——中国和巴西的经济是互补的，并且有了中国这个合作者，巴西减少了对美国市场的依赖。在NPR新闻的同名报道《中国拉丁美洲日益紧密的贸易关系》中，Julie McCarth这样写道：“从广范围来看，在过去的五年中，在巴西，美国市场份额在减少而同时中国的份额猛增… … 美国将注意力放在了伊拉克战争上，这使得中国这个新来者可能使美国在他的传统影响力地区黯然失色。” [color=darkslategray]（红山茶 译）[/color]
同样，中国对自然资源的渴求，在某种程度上说明了中国与非洲之间巨大的贸易增长。世界资源研究所执行编辑Stephanie Hanson，于2008年6月在题为“中国，非洲与石油”一文中写道，“中国现在已经是继美国之后，超过法国和英国成为(非洲)大陆第二大贸易伙伴。 2002至2003年，中国与非洲之间的贸易翻番至$185亿元；到2007年，达到$730。”根据作者所写，尽管中国政府与苏丹的关系一直遭到强烈的批评，但非洲在2007年得到的5.8%的经济增长，成为历史最高水平，其中的原因就有中国的投资。专家说，由中国公司承建的道路、桥梁以及水坝，成本低，质量好，并且完工时间只是通常在非洲开展同类项目所需时间的一小部份。中国也派遣维和人员到包括利比里亚和达尔富尔在内的非洲地区执行联合国维和任务。(中国)解除了非洲国家$100亿的双边债务，提供医务人员到非洲大陆进行医治工作，并在中国的大学和培训中心招纳成千上万的非洲务工人员以及学生。
很少人可以争论，中国所付出的这众多努力已经帮助其建立了强大的友好关系，巩固了中国在非洲这片传统上同欧洲和美国联系紧密的大陆上作为一个重要角色的地位。
1988年，我还在北京上学之时，我的中国及外国学友上演了一幕名为“2030年时的校园”的话剧。此话剧采用设想在2030年左右发生在我的大学校园内的几个故事情节来描述浪漫场景。这是关于年轻的西方学生如何在那学习，为了获取中国的绿卡想尽办法找到一位中国伴侣结婚的故事。这出话剧长时间以来一直是我们大笑的话题。我们都记得，1988年的前后，正是中国人在美国全力争取绿卡并最终成为美国公民的全盛时期。没有人相信会发生这种逆转。对于我们大部人来说，话剧(的故事)只是奢想而已。 [color=darkslategray]（QChen译）
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够了！那场戏开场20年后，越来越多的普通中国人，甚至外国人开始看到，自己未来可能不仅仅在美国，而是在中国。我把一种语言在源地之外的渗透和接受看作是影响力（强弱）的标准。跟今天相比，法国过去曾是更强大的世界强国，而在国际事务中法语作为共同语言被广泛采用，直到大英帝国取代法国的地位。自那时以来，由于超级大国的旗帜传递给另一个以英语为母语的国家-美国-英语继续成为最主要的国际语言，超过一个世纪。鉴于中文跟西方语言完全不言，很难想象将有一天，来自世界各地的人聚在一起讲汉语来相互沟通。
真的吗？我有一个瑞士的朋友，娶了一个蒙古太太，他们和女儿住在美国。他们唯一的共同语言刚巧是汉语。我承认，这仍然是相当罕见的情况。但可以肯定的是，越来越多的美国人和西方人已经开始学习中文。美国的一些高中现在提供中文课。在一些亚洲国家的大学，中文已成为最热门的课程。如果未来难以预测，我们可以看一下历史。就像许多西方语言追根溯源来自拉丁语，许多亚洲语言源自中国古代-日语，韩语，越南语，仅举几例。遍布世界各地的 "中国城"在中文的意思是“唐人街”。这不仅巧合：唐朝时期的中国恰好是当时世界上最强的经济，和其文化的影响是如此深远，今天的海外华人，仍然自称为唐人。我15年前访问香港时，香港市民几乎不讲普通话。而当中国的国内生产总值上升，香港人的普通话水平也上升了。今天，他们讲普通话就像一个大陆人。类似的情况同样发生在新加坡和其他一些亚洲国家。
许多人好奇是什么可以长期把中国与外国合作伙伴(尤其是近邻)紧密连接在一起。贸易和经济的相互依存绝对有影响。但中国和远东地区的一些最好的贸易伙伴之间，仍然有很多问题，争端和战争伤亡。如果美国及其西方盟国能在民主和自由的意识形态之下团结一致，那么，可以把国家或地区，诸如日本，新加坡，台湾，南韩，泰国，菲律宾和中国结合在一起的潜在的更高目标是什么？
在石油进口和纺织品出口之外，有什么其他更重要的东西吗？当我终于开始明白胡锦涛先生所呼吁的“和谐社会”的真正含义，我意识到，中国已经找到了使中国人团结起来的粘合剂。不是共产主义，也不是西方民主和个人主义。相反，它是二千五百年的儒学，儒学的重点是人类的道德和共同的善行，它尊敬秩序和美德。这种哲学与许多亚洲国家和世界其他地方共鸣。
事实上，旧的可以成为新的，新的可以成为旧的。中国已经创造了自己走向繁荣的道路，并正按自己的方式在为恢复其昔日辉煌传达信息。当权力得到均衡，人民之间的经济和社会差距减小，我相信对所有人而言，世界将成为一个更美好的地方。 [color=darkslategray]（rlsrls08，sspek 译）[/color]
[[i] 本帖最后由 Nicolle 于 2008-9-4 17:56 编辑 [/i]] 志同道合的海外学子，老乡见老乡两眼泪汪汪...
o3O106)
我就不翻译了，水平有限，自己看还可以..
o3O114)
加油！谢谢翻译牛人筒子们了！
o3O141) 我来翻译3、4段吧 感谢感谢，我就等着看文章了。
我英语不行，，，，，严重鄙视自己。。。。
要不然也也能帮着翻译几段。。。Q37)
Q64) 感谢MS GONG. ! 祝你一切顺利！
译文3-4
倘若巨大的GDP（国内生产总值，译注）为中国成为世界强国提供了基础和手段，强大的军队为这个政权的支撑自我提供了安全保证，那么对中国来说，剩下的就是和国际社会建立共同利益。这样，这个政权的影响力就能跨越国界，对国际事务产生影响。对一个强国来说，共同利益的重要性以及其建立联盟的能力正如水泥之于砖砌楼房。各个国家都是由人民构成。人们因共同的价值观，共同的潜在机遇和繁荣而聚到一起。中国要成为一个受认可的世界强国，仅仅是GDP和军费的数字是远远不够的。通过进一步的政治透明度来赢得信任积累国际信誉，通过自由贸易、经济援助、文化交流和灵活的外交手段来赢得尊重，中国将能，也只能通过这些达到目的。中国的最大挑战及潜在危机是自然资源的缺乏。Crisis（危机），正如其汉语的表达“危机”的那样，意味着“危险”和“机会”。这项挑战为中国广交政治伙伴，建立经济联创造了巨大的机会；这个挑战同样为那些资源丰富国家享有小规模的经济繁荣创造了机会。据新华社报道，2007年，巴西和中国的贸易比2006年上涨42.55%，达到233亿美元。13亿中国人对肉类的消费使中国农作土地和给水缺乏，这让巴西成为中国理想的大豆供应国。正如中国驻巴西大使陈笃庆在一次NPR（全国公共广播电台,简称NPR，是一家获公众赞助及部分政府资助、但独立运作的非商业性美国媒体，译者注）的采访时所说明的那样——中国和巴西的经济是互补的，并且有了中国这个合作者，巴西减少了对美国市场的依赖。在NPR新闻的同名报道《中国拉丁美洲日益紧密的贸易关系》中，Julie McCarth这样写道：“从广范围来看，在过去的五年中，在巴西，美国市场份额在减少而同时中国的份额猛增… … 美国将注意力放在了伊拉克战争上，这使得中国这个新来者可能使美国在他的传统影响力地区黯然失色。” 致敬Q50) 呵呵,刚刚发现个小问题,就是用Mozilla Firefox能正常显示排版,用IE的话左右两栏就变形了Q44),应该是CSS的定义问题吧~~西方国家使用 Mozilla Firefox浏览器的人还是非常多的~
[[i] 本帖最后由 lzcby15 于 2008-9-3 19:29 编辑 [/i]] 拜读了，谢谢各位[i][b][color=black]编译人员翻译！[/color][/b][/i] 旧的可以成为新的，新的可以成为旧的。 *** 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽 ***
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