IS CHINA LOSING COMPETITIVENESS?
[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]BCA [/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]R E S E A H C H[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Independent[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Investment Research[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Since 1949[/size][/font]
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[align=left][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]August 20, 2008
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Investment strategy and recommendations[/size][/font][/align][align=right][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]for China, Hong Kong and Taiwan[/size][/font][/align][align=left][url=http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080826.GIF]http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080826.GIF[/url][/align]
[u][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Special Report[/b][/size][/font][/u]
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[align=center][font=Verdana][b][size=3]IS CHINA LOSING COMPETITIVENESS?[/size][/b][/font][/align]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]HIGHLIGHTS[/b][/size][/font]
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[list][*][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Slowing Chinese export growth in recent months is a reflection of changing global market conditions rather than a deterioration in Chinese producers competitiveness.[/size][/font][/list][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][/size][/font]
[list][*][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]As an efficient producer of a growing number of products, China may in fact benefit from unfavorable global market conditions.[/size][/font][/list][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][/size][/font]
[list][*][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]China[/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]’s structural transformation to higher value-added industries is efficiency insistently. Meanwhile, the regional growth disparity and the governments growth strategy to boost the lagging interior will prolong China’s life cycle as a low-cost and competitive producer of lower-margin products.[/size][/font][/list][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]The mainstream media has been filled with numerous alarming reports in recent months about Chinese companies closing production facilities due to rising costs. Citing surging materials prices, a strong RMB and rising wages, some analysts have concluded that China is quickly losing its competitive edge, and international producers are moving[/size][/font] [font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]to other countries. Slowing Chinese export growth of late seems to have confirmed this judgment. [/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]The export sector has been a major growth engine for China, and overseas markets are critical for domestic producers to employ their spare capacity. Over the years, Chinese products have been consistently gaining market share in global trade, despite the ups and downs of the global business cycle, underscoring the strong competitiveness of Chinese exporters. Therefore, whether there is a structural deterioration in the competitiveness of China’s export sector is important in terms of gauging the long-term growth outlook for the Chinese economy.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]A Reality Check[/b][/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Compared to the hectic annual growth rates of 40% to 50% frequently registered in 2004 and 2005, there is no question that Chinese overall export sector performance has slowed noticeably in the past several months. Going forward, it is entirely possible that Chinese exports will continue to moderate.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Nonetheless, it is important to note that in economics, competitiveness is a comparative concept that measures the ability and performance of a company or country to supply products and services under given market conditions. [/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 1[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt] shows no meaningful deterioration of Chinese exporters’ market share in the global trade, particularly when exports of oil-producing countries are excluded. This means that China’s slowing export growth in recent months is a reflection of changing global market conditions rather than a deterioration in Chinese producers’ competitiveness:[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]• First, rising input costs due to higher commodities prices are not unique to China. Manufacturers around the world are suffering similar cost pressures and margin squeezes.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]• Second, the RMB’s appreciation has not been excessive, rising at a 3.5% annual rate in trade- weighted terms since its 2005 de-peg from the U.S. dollar. The trade-weighted yuan is still below its 2002 levels, when the economy was struggling with the deflationary shock of the burst tech bubble.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]• [/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Third, the recent weakness in the export sector is also attributable to the Chinese government’s voluntary export restraints, which have been part of the country’s broader growth-rebalancing strategy. For example, the value-added tax (VAT) for the majority of export products has been slashed, while metal producers are being charged hefty tariffs on their overseas sales. These voluntary restrictions could be removed any time if excessive weakness in these sectors threatens the overall export sector performance. Already, the government has increased VAT rebates for textile and garment exporters since the beginning of the month.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]In fact, as an efficient producer of a growing variety of products, China may benefit from unfavorable global market conditions. The reason is that rapid productivity gains among Chinese producers have enabled them to use aggressive cost cuffing to mitigate surging materials costs and weather softening global demand. [/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 2[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt] shows that U.S. import price from China, although rising since last year, still lag costs of U.S. imports from other regions significantly. This means that Chinese products have become increasingly cheaper relative to goods produced and exported by America’s other trade partners, which enhances Chinese products’ competitiveness in the marketplace. As the “last man standing,” Chinese producers could undercut their global competitors and grab more market share.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]This partly explains why there has been a negative correlation between China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and global business cycles: Chinese FDI inflows typically accelerate when global business conditions deteriorate, and vice versa ([/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 3[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]). Currently, foreign investments are flooding into China at a more than 40% annual rate, a sign that multinationals are accelerating their capacity relocation to China to beef up their competitive edge.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]The “Guangdong Syndrome”[/b][/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]A closer look at the gloomy reports of factory closures and bankruptcies reveals that most of the story centers around what have happened in Guangdong, the booming province neighboring Hong Kong and China’s manufacturing powerhouse since the 1980s. In the past several years, the province has reportedly been plagued by a shortage of skilled workers and rising labor costs. However, the “difficult” situation in Guangdong does not mean that the region’s economy is becoming less competitive. In fact, the “problem” that Guangdong is having today can be best attributed to its own economic success ([/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 4[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]).[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]As a first mover of China’s economic reform, Guangdong has always enjoyed faster economic growth rates than the national average since reforms started in the late 1970s. With 7% of China’s total population, Guangdong currently produces 12% of the country’s total economic output, up from 5% in the late 1970s. On average, per capita GDP in Guangdong is among the highest of all the Chinese provinces.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]The much more advanced economic development level underscores Guangdong’s higher marginal labor productivity. This means that wages in Guangdong are also higher than in other regions. The bottom panel of [b]Chart 4[/b] shows the growing wage gap between Guangdong and Fujian, a neighboring coastal province. The income gap between Guangdong and the more remote inland provinces are even bigger. Inevitably, other manufacturing costs, particularly the price of land, are also much higher in Guangdong than in other regions.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]The rising cost structure associated with Guangdong’s own economic success means that some labor-intensive and lower-value-added products are naturally losing out in the process. For example, despite Guangdong’s stellar economic performance in recent years, profit margins in its textile industry have been chronically lower than the national average. As a result, the province’s economy has been shifting toward more technology and capital intensive sectors ([/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 5[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]). Textiles, garments and toys that used to dominate the Guangdong economy have given way to industries such as automotive, electronics and machinery manufacturing, as well as financial services.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]This structural shift toward more value-added industries started a long time ago, not a recent phenomenon as has been featured in numerous reports over the past several months. More importantly, neither Guangdong’s export sector nor its overall economic performance have suffered much from this structural shift. Real GDP expanded by a 10.6% annual rate in the first two quarters of this year. Port traffic in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the two major sea ports within the province, has been rising at more than 20% annual rates in recent months, contrary to numerous reports about sharply slower economic activity ([/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 6[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]).[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Looking forward, lower-margin businesses in Guangdong will likely continue to struggle, but their impact on the overall economic performance should be marginal. The economy’s ascendance on the value-added production chain is overall efficiency-enhancing rather than a loss of competitiveness.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]A Grand Shift[/b][/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Guangdong[/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]’s experience provides an excellent empirical case study for development economics as well as for the structural transformation of the Chinese economy. Extraordinary growth in the past 30 years has significantly lifted China’s standard of living, making its cost structure less attractive for some low-margin labor-intensive industries. The competitive nature of the marketplace is forcing these industries to look to even lower-cost countries or regions in order to survive. In recent years, there has been explosive growth of investment outflows from China to some neighboring countries where manufacturing costs are considerably lower for certain industries, such as Vietnam and Pakistan, suggesting that Chinese producers have already started to take advantage of lower costs elsewhere ([/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 7[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]).[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]On the other hand, it is equally important to note that China itself is a diverse country with very different cost structures among different regions. With decades of relatively faster growth, the coastal region, as represented by the Guangdong province, has become prohibitively expensive for certain industries. However, social and economic development levels in the central and western provinces have lagged significantly behind their eastern counterparts. With much lower labor and land costs, these provinces provide a cheaper alternative for manufacturers in the coastal region looking to reduce costs.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]This process is being reinforced by the central government’s growth strategy to achieve a more balanced growth profile among different regions. The government has been encouraging producers to relocate the production capacity of certain industries to lower-cost interior provinces by providing preferable industrial and taxation policies for manufacturers willing to move inland. Consistent with this, the authorities have been working hard to enhance basic infrastructure in inland provinces to make the vast interior regions efficient enough for manufacturing businesses. Over the past three years, the length of highways in the central and western provinces expanded dramatically. The local governments’ fiscal stimulus, a large part of which is focused on infrastructure spending, has been gradually reduced in the eastern provinces in recent years, along with the central government’s overall strategy to cool growth. However, the central and western provinces’ fiscal spigot remains wide open with ever-increasing deficits ([/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 8[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]).[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Overall, there is a gradual but clear trend within the Chinese economy: shifting from being an economy based primarily on agriculture and low-value-added, labor-intensive industries to one of higher-value-added, diverse manufacturing and services ([/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Chart 9[/b][/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]). This structural transformation means that the economy as a whole is climbing up the value-added ladder. However, regional growth disparity within China and the government’s growth strategy to boost the lagging interior will prolong the nation’s life cycle as a low-cost and competitive producer of lower-margin products.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt][b]Conclusions[/b][/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]China[/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt] is unlikely to maintain its massive export sector boom forever. The extraordinary strength of Chinese exports has caused growing discontent among the country’s major trade partners. Meanwhile, the economy’s increasing dependence on the export sector is also against the country’s long-term interests, and the government has been trying to prevent the export sector from recklessly over-expanding. In addition, the global environment will likely remain weak in the coming months and continue to depress demand for Chinese products from a cyclical point of view.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Nonetheless, it is a gross exaggeration to conclude that Chinese producers as a whole are losing competitiveness. Instead, moving up the value chain is a natural evolution brought about by economic prosperity, which in itself is overall efficiency-enhancing. From a structural perspective, Chinese exporters still enjoy significant cost advantages and faster productivity gains, which will sustain their outperformance in global trade. The continuing emergence of China as a manufacturing powerhouse still represents a key growth driver and a disinflationary force for the global economy.[/size][/font]
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[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Yan Wang[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]Managing Editor[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]China[/size][/font][font=Verdana][size=10.5pt] Investment Strategy[/size][/font]
[font=Verdana][size=10.5pt]yanw@BCAresearch.com[/size][/font]
[[i] 本帖最后由 Nicolle 于 2008-9-7 05:15 编辑 [/i]]
【译文】
[align=center][align=left][b][color=Red]【鸣谢】AC 志愿编译者：末末的快乐，红山茶，我最爱祖国，QChen ！[/color][color=Red]【 注 】译文版权归 ANTI-CNN所有，谢绝转载！[/color]
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[b]
中国在逐渐失去竞争力？[/b]
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中国的出口增长速度近几个月在减缓，这是全球市场状况转变的反应，而不是中国生产商竞争力恶化的表现。
作为一个相当有效率的生产商，实际上，中国也许能从这种全球市场不景气的状况中获利。
中国（经济）在结构上向高增值产业转变是持续而有效的。同时，地区性增长差异以及政府鼓励落后内陆地区的发展政策将会使其生产成本降低，成为薄利产品的积极生产者，延长其生命周期。
对于中国公司近几个月来由于成本上升而关闭生产厂家的事件，主流媒体充斥着各种警报性的报道。一些分析家引证急剧上升的物价，人民币的坚挺和工资上涨，认为中国正在快速失去其竞争力，而国际生产商都在迁往其他国家。近来中国出口增长速度减缓看起来证实了这一判断。
出口行业对中国来说，一直是主要经济增长动力。海外市场对国内生产商雇佣他们的剩余劳动力较为严苛。这些年来，尽管全球商业周期变化起起伏伏，中国产品却由于出口商的强竞争力在世界贸易中保持市场份额增长。因此，中国出口行业是否在结构上有转变是衡量中国经济长期发展前景的重要尺度。
[color=DarkSlateGray](末末的快乐 译)[/color]
同2004年和2005年通常达到40%至50%的增长率相比，毫无疑问，中国的总体出口领域的表现与前几个月相比，增长显著地放慢了。就今后来看，中国出口将会有极大可能继续保持平稳。
但是，有必要重视在经济领域，竞争力是一个比较概念，用来检验一家公司或是一个国家在给定的市场条件下供应产品或是服务的能力和表现。图表一说明，中国出口上的在全球贸易中的市场份额并没有明显的衰退，注产油国的出口被排除在外计算。这表明中国减慢的出口增长主要是受全球市场状况的影响，而不是中国制造商的竞争力衰退
首先，进口的增长是由于原料价格，这并不仅是针对中国。全球制造商都面临同样的成本压力和利润受挤压。
第二，人民币升值并没有过度，从2005年放弃盯住美元后贸易加权汇率每年上升3.5%。贸易加权人民币汇率仍然低于2002年的水平，那时经济正试图摆脱高科技泡沫引发的通货紧缩冲击。
第三，最近最进出口部门的疲软也归因于中国政府主动限制出口，这是国家调整平衡增长战略的一部分。例如，由于金属制造商在海外被征收巨额关税，大部分出口商的增值税退还已经被削减。如果这些部门出口业绩可能出现过分疲软，主动限制就可以随时取消。在这个月初政府已经增加了纺织品和成衣出口商的增值税补。
实际上，作为更多种类产品有竞争力的生产商，中国可能从不利的全球市场状况下获利。原因是中国制造商的快速提高生产效率使得他们能够利用有侵略性的成本来应对减缓原料成本冲击和全球需求下滑。图表2显示，美国从中国进口的产品价格，虽然比去年有所上升，但是增幅明显仍然低于其从其他地区进口货物的开支。这表明中国产品相比美国其他贸易伙伴生产出口的货物而言，变得更加便宜了，这将会增强中国货物在市场上的竞争力。就如同“站着的最后一个人”，中国制造商能够以低于他们全球竞争者的提供货物并抢夺更多市场份额。
[b]广东综合症[/b]
一份最近的令人失望的观察报告表明，工厂关闭破产，显示大多数问题都集中发生在广东，这一毗邻香港的快速发展省份，从1980年代起他就是中国的制造中心。在前几年，这个省被报道陷入了熟练工人短缺和劳动成本上升麻烦。但是，广东所面临的困难并不意味着这一地区的经济竞争力下降。实际上，广东今天面临的“这一问题”能够最好的解释它的经济成功。
作为中国经济改革的先行者，自从1970年代末开始改革以来，广东一直享受着比国家平均水平更高的增长率。依靠中国7%的人口，广东现在创造了了这个国家12%的经济产出，而在1970年代末只占5%.广东的人均GDP是中国所有省份中最高的。
这非常繁荣的经济发展水平取决于广东较高的边际劳动生产率。这意味着广东的工资要比其他地区高。图表四的底部面板显示两个相邻的省份广东和福建工资增长缺口。广东和其他内陆省份的收入缺口更大。不可避免的，其他制造成本，尤其是土地价格，在广东要比在其他地区高得多.
成本结构的提升与广东经济成功的联系意味着，一些劳动密集型和低附加值的产品会自然别淘汰。例如，尽管最近几年广东的经济成就突出，但是它的纺织工业的利润率逐渐低于全国平均水平。因此，该省的经济将会向更加高科技和资本密集型部门转移。（图表五）纺织，成衣和玩具曾经是广东经济的支柱，已经让位于像汽车、电子产品和机械制造这样的工业和金融服务部门。
向更高附加值工业的转移从很长时间以前就开始了，并不像最近几个月无数报道提到的那样是最近才发生的现象。更重要的是，不论广东出口部门还是它的经济总体情况，都从这一产业结构转移中获益很多。在今年头两个季度，真实GDP增长达到10.6%。广州和深圳，该省最主要的两个港口，近几个月的口岸交易与同期相比也增长了超过20%，与很多报道显示的经济增长减慢形成相反比较。（图表六）
向前看，广东的低利润行业可能会继续挣扎，但是他们在总的经济成就中的影响力将会减小。经济的高附加值生产线总体来说会增加效率而不是丧失竞争力。
[color=DarkSlateGray](我最爱祖国 译）[/color]
广东的经验为经济发展及中国经济结构转型提供了一个非常棒的实例研究。过去三十年的非凡增长，使中国在极大程度上提高了生活水平。对于那些低利润劳动密集型行业来说，这也使中国的成本结构对其失去了吸引力。市场的竞争本质迫使这类行业去找更低成本的国家或地区以求得生存。最近几年，中国资本流出激增，这些资本从中国流入到其周边国家。在这些国家，比如越南、巴基斯坦，对某些行业而言，制造成本相当的低廉。这表明中国的制造商们已经开始利用其他地方的低成本了（见图7）。
另一方面，要注意中国本身就是一个多元化的国家——不同的地区有着不同的成本结构，这也同样很重要。随着几十年来的较快增长，以广东省为代表的沿海地区，对于某些行业来说，变得过于昂贵。然而，中西部省份的社会经济发展水平远远落后于东部地区。靠着低廉的劳动力和土地成本，这些省份为沿海地区的制造商们提供了一个廉价的替代品。
中央政府发展战略强化了这项进程，以期达到各地区平衡发展的目的。通过为那些愿意到内陆（投资）的制造业者提供优惠的行业及税收政策，政府鼓励生产者将某类行业的生产能力转移到内陆低成本省份。与此相一致，政府正在努力加强基础设施建设，使广大的内陆地区为制造企业高效服务。过去三年里，中西部省份的高速公路以惊人的速度拓展。根据中央政府的总战略——经济降温，在东部地区，最近几年，地方政府的财政刺激（大部分用于基础设施建设）已经逐渐减少。但是，中西部省份尽管有赤字，财政瓶口仍然大开（见图8）。
总的来说，中国经济呈现一个清晰的渐增趋势：从一个以农业、低附加值行业和劳动密集型行业为主的经济向高附加值、多样化制造和服务业为主的经济转变（见图9）。这种结构变化表明整体经济正向附加值门槛迈进。然而，中国的地区发展不平衡及政府推动落后内陆地区的发展战略，延长了这个国家作一个低成本竞争的低利润产品生产者的生命周期。[color=DarkSlateGray]
（红山茶 译）[/color]
[b]结论[/b]
中国不可能永远保持出口产业的蓬勃发展。中国出口的非凡实力已经导致了该国主要贸易伙伴之间的不满不断加剧。同时，经济增长对于出口产业的依赖也与国家的长远利益相违背，政府已经试图预防出口产业盲目的过于膨胀。此外，以周期性观点来看，全球环境在未来几个月也很可能持续疲软，并继续削弱对中国产品的需求。
尽管如此，以中国生产商总体上逐渐失去竞争力作为结论属夸大之词。取而代之的是，提升价值链是由经济繁荣带来的自然演变，在其本质上是总体的效率提高。从结构的角度看，中国的出口商还是享有明显的成本优势和更快的生产能力增长，这将使其维持他们在全球贸易中的优胜。中国作为全球制造业的发电站持续存在还是在全球经济中扮演着一个关键的增长驱动，一股抑制通货膨胀的力量的角色。[color=DarkSlateGray]
（QChen 译）[/color]
[[i] 本帖最后由 Nicolle 于 2008-9-10 00:41 编辑 [/i]] nic抢沙发不厚道。Q36) 。。。顶一个，慢慢看。。。。 浏览了下，发现此文的分析方法有些简单化了（有几个段落就像是“看图作文”……开下玩笑Q44) ），不过观点还是值得借鉴
P.S.期待楼主的翻译Q17)
译文终于出炉，有劳各位网友就等，呵呵。欢迎指正。
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